US divided government and congressional gridlock
Following the 2026 midterms where Democrats captured majorities in both the House and the Senate, Donald Trump's administration faces total divided government. The dynamic blocks judicial confirmations, triggers investigations, and forces governance through executive actions and tariff disputes. The track traces legislative standoffs through the 2028 presidential campaign to the 2029 inauguration.
- Today
Democrats take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in a midterm rout, establishing divided government with the Trump administration.
Where the story stands today. The forecast starts from here.
- 14 December 2026week 6
Democrats launch joint panels to challenge Trump agenda
Subpoenas will target White House rules while appellate court vacancies remain unfilled.
base case80%WASHINGTON — Democratic leaders in the House and Senate announced joint oversight committees on Monday to subpoena White House regulatory decisions and block appellate judicial nominees. The move leaves remaining federal executive agency posts vacant without Senate confirmation. The White House must now rely on acting appointments and emergency executive orders to govern.
- 22 February 2027week 16
Budget talks collapse, leaving federal spending frozen
Congress settles on a stopgap bill after House and Senate negotiators fail to strike a deal.
base case75%WASHINGTON — Negotiators from the House and Senate failed to pass an annual budget on Wednesday, forcing lawmakers to fund government agencies with a temporary patch. The stopgap freezes discretionary budgets at old levels. Military accounts and foreign assistance payments will see immediate funding delays.
- 17 May 2027week 28
Senate blocks Trump nominee for Deputy Treasury Secretary
Democrats reject the pick over disputes concerning trade tariffs.
base case72%WASHINGTON — The Senate voted on Monday to reject the administration's nominee for Deputy Treasury Secretary because of disagreements over import tariffs. The Treasury Department must now rely on temporary staff to manage its economic policy divisions. The vote sharpens the fight between Congress and the executive branch over trade powers.
- 6 September 2027week 44
Senate votes to curb unilateral White House tariff increases
A bipartisan majority backed the measure despite a veto threat.
plausible65%WASHINGTON — A bipartisan coalition in the Senate approved a bill limiting unilateral tariff hikes on allied democracies. Lawmakers sent the measure to the House of Representatives, framing the curbs as economic relief for shoppers. The White House said President Donald Trump would veto the bill.
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- 27 December 2027week 60
Presidential primaries open across early states for 2028 race
Lawmakers in Washington are shifting working days around key campaign stops.
base case75%WASHINGTON — Voters in early states have cast the first primary ballots for both major political parties ahead of the 2028 presidential race. The early voting begins with the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate deadlocked against the Trump administration. Congressional leaders have begun pausing routine committee schedules to focus on the campaign.
- 17 April 2028week 76
Two-day government shutdown ends with emergency debt extension
Congress pauses the statutory borrowing ceiling until early 2029.
low probability18%WASHINGTON — A forty-eight-hour partial federal shutdown ended late Wednesday after congressional leaders passed an emergency debt-ceiling extension. The standoff between the Trump administration and Democratic majorities in both chambers had briefly halted unfunded departmental work. The approved measure suspends the national debt ceiling through early 2029.
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- 7 August 2028week 92
Congress passes emergency power grid fund after Midwest summer blackouts
The measure clears both chambers to fix transmission bottlenecks across the central states.
plausible62%WASHINGTON — Congress broke through partisan deadlock to approve an emergency infrastructure bill following severe summer strain on the Midwestern grid. The vote sends direct funding to the Department of Energy to upgrade cross-country electricity corridors. The measure also sets aside money for local nuclear microgrids.
- 6 November 2028week 105
Voters pick new president but leave control of Congress divided
Narrow split in the Capitol keeps legislative power closely balanced.
plausible58%WASHINGTON — American voters chose a new president in Tuesday's general election while maintaining a split Congress. The result leaves narrow margins in both chambers, complicating upcoming cabinet appointments. The outgoing administration must now complete pending spending bills during a lame-duck session.
- 15 January 2029week 115
New administration takes office in Washington as gridlocked session ends
Inauguration dissolves the split Congress formed by the 2026 midterms.
base case70%WASHINGTON — The new presidential administration was sworn into office in Washington on Thursday, closing the split legislative session that followed the 2026 midterms. The incoming White House immediately began resetting agency appointments and foreign policy goals. The shift brings an end to two years of legislative standstill.