Russia-Ukraine attrition and long-range drone warfare
Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign against Russian refineries tests Moscow's domestic defenses and energy revenues. Heavy frontline positional pressure and counter-infrastructure missile barrages continue across Ukraine. Over five years, mounting mutual infrastructure damage forces both sides toward mediated limits on energy targeting.
- Today
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposes a mutual energy infrastructure ceasefire at the UN General Assembly while Ukrainian drone strikes continue targeting Russian fuel storage.
Where the story stands today. The forecast starts from here.
- 9 November 2026week 6
Moscow pulls air defence units from southern front to protect capital
Five missile units move north as Ukrainian drone strikes target deep inside Russia.
base case78%KYIV — Russian commanders moved three Pantsir-S1 batteries and two S-400 battalions from southern sectors to ring Moscow against Ukrainian drones. The redeployment sets up a layered shield around the capital. The shift leaves Russian troops with less air cover along southern battle lines.
- 4 January 2027week 14
Ukrainian drones cut Russian fuel refining capacity by six per cent
Strikes on major plants in Ryazan and Nizhny Novgorod damage distillation towers.
base case75%KYIV — Ukrainian strike drones hit secondary distillation units at two major refineries in Ryazan and Nizhny Novgorod. The attacks knocked out six per cent of Russia's operating oil refining capacity. Moscow responded by limiting domestic exports of refined petroleum products.
- 15 March 2027week 24
Russian missile strike batters Ukrainian power grid
A 120-missile barrage targeted high-voltage electrical stations across central regions.
base case74%KYIV — Russian forces fired 120 cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian high-voltage transmission substations across central Ukraine. The strikes cut electricity to civilian homes and forced the grid to import power from European neighbours. Positional fighting continued along the Dnipro river line.
- 7 June 2027week 36
Ukraine begins mass production of jam-proof jet drones
Optical navigation systems let the strike weapons hit targets without GPS.
base case72%KYIV — Ukraine's state defense firm began mass-producing jet-powered strike drones equipped with optical contrast navigation. The system bypasses electronic warfare defences by guiding drones to targets without relying on GPS signals. The factory ramp-up spreads advanced automated guidance technology deeper into Eastern Europe.
- 13 September 2027week 50
Ukrainian drones set fire to Bryansk oil depot
The strike stopped crude deliveries toward western export terminals for five days.
base case70%KYIV — A Ukrainian drone strike hit crude oil storage tanks at the Bryansk pipeline depot on Monday, causing a major blaze. The damage forced operators to shut down crude transport through the hub for five days. Regional marine transit insurance rates climbed as western export flows ground to a halt.
- 17 January 2028week 68
Armies dig in along river fronts as ground advance stalls
Fortified lines and sensor minefields leave both sides relying on air and drone strikes.
base case68%KYIV — Ukrainian and Russian forces built reinforced trenches and laid sensor-activated minefields along the Oskil and Dnipro rivers. The work halted net territorial movement on both fronts. The fighting has settled into a contest of endurance along fixed positions.
- 22 May 2028week 86
Russian forces deploy fiber-optic wire drones in the Donbas
Tethered links defeat Ukrainian electronic jamming on the battlefield.
base case65%KYIV — Russian contractors delivered attack drones guided by tethered fiber-optic cables to frontline units in the Donbas. The physical wire connections bypass Ukrainian tactical radio jamming entirely. Soldiers on both sides have begun hardening physical troop shelters and improving field camouflage.
Follows from: US-China AI governance, safety, and export controlsThe front page that week →
- 2 October 2028week 105
European Union approves 15 billion euros for Ukrainian weapons factories
Direct grants will co-finance missile and drone production lines inside Ukraine.
base case62%BRUSSELS — European defense ministers backed a multi-year 15-billion-euro grant program to build missiles and drones inside Ukrainian factories. The money ties Ukraine's defense plants directly into European procurement programs. Kyiv will use the funds to expand domestic assembly lines under joint European contracts.
Follows from: German coalition stability and fiscal governanceThe front page that week →
- 26 February 2029week 126
Ukrainian drone raid hits fuel depots at Novorossiysk naval base
Russian warships move east as sea and air attacks hit fleet bunkers.
plausible58%KYIV — Long-range Ukrainian drones attacked fuel depots at the Novorossiysk naval base with air and sea strikes. The damage forced Russian naval commanders to disperse warships to anchorages further east in the Black Sea. The retreat limits Russia's capacity to launch naval operations against Ukrainian grain shipping routes.
- 13 August 2029week 150
Ukrainian drone strike hits cooling substation at Severodvinsk shipyard
The long-range attack struck an Arctic naval yard and led to an emergency Kremlin meeting.
low probability5%KYIV — A long-range Ukrainian drone strike damaged the primary electrical cooling substation at a Russian naval shipyard in Severodvinsk on the White Sea. The Kremlin convened an emergency security council session following the blast. The strike showed that strategic Arctic shipyards lie within reach of Ukrainian remote attack craft.
- 25 February 2030week 178
Moscow secures six-year mandate and locks in wartime military budget
State election results guarantee uninterrupted cash for long-range drone and missile production.
base case60%MOSCOW — Russian election authorities have formalized a new six-year presidential term, locking full state budget priority into military production. The confirmed spending plan guarantees domestic funding for missile factories and long-range drone lines through the decade. Frontline weapons programs will maintain first call on federal revenue.
- 26 August 2030week 204
Russia and Ukraine sign deal to halt attacks on energy grids
Talks mediated by Turkey and Qatar pause strikes on refineries, pipelines, and power substations.
plausible42%ISTANBUL — Russian and Ukrainian delegates signed a verified deal on Monday to suspend long-range strikes against commercial energy infrastructure. The pact, mediated in talks hosted by Turkey and Qatar, stops drone and missile raids on refineries, electrical substations, and gas pumps. Both militaries had battered opposing grids for years.
- 24 February 2031week 230
Ukrainian engineers restore two-thirds of damaged power plants
A six-month freeze on power station strikes stabilizes the civilian grid and lowers emergency electricity imports.
plausible40%KYIV — Ukraine has reconnected 65 percent of its damaged thermal power stations after a six-month pause in attacks on energy sites. Technicians rebuilt grid connections while missile and drone strikes on civilian stations remained halted. The restored capacity has lowered the state's spending on emergency electricity imports.
- 22 September 2031week 260
Monitors deploy river sensors to track Dnipro buffer zone
Unmanned acoustic detectors verify that military drones and aircraft stay clear of the quiet zone.
plausible38%VIENNA — An international technical mission placed unmanned acoustic sensors along the Dnipro river to monitor airspace activity in the buffer zone. The team, backed by the United Nations and neutral nations, monitors flight movements to enforce local de-escalation agreements. The sensor network provides automated verification for both sides along the river.