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Forecast · not a report of real eventsBuilt Wednesday, 21 October 2026 from that day’s real headlines

science

Japan Mars moon sample return mission and planetary science

Japan launches the uncrewed Martian Moons eXploration spacecraft on a five-year mission to collect rock and dust from Phobos and return them to Earth. The mission faces perilous deep-space orbital maneuvers and automated sampling before landing in Australia in 2031. Successful recovery delivers the first direct geological samples from the Martian system.

9 events · Runs from today to 13 October 2031

  1. Today

    Japan launches an uncrewed spacecraft on a five-year mission to explore Mars' moons Phobos and Deimos and return soil samples.

    Where the story stands today. The forecast starts from here.

  2. 11 January 2027week 12

    Japan's Phobos probe completes first deep-space engine burn

    The craft remains on course for Mars with normal fuel reserves.

    base case78%

    — Ground controllers confirmed on Wednesday that Japan's uncrewed Martian Moons eXploration spacecraft completed its first trajectory correction burn. The probe is now flying along its planned solar cruise path toward the Martian moon Phobos. Flight teams in Japan have moved into routine cruise monitoring ahead of automated sampling runs scheduled before the craft returns in 2031.

  3. 12 July 2027week 38

    Japan clears Phobos probe cameras and robotic arm for Mars mission

    Ground teams approve landing guidance ahead of a planned Australian dust drop in 2031.

    base case74%

    — Japan's space agency has completed calibration tests on the robotic arm and optical cameras of its Phobos sample-return craft. Ground engineers confirmed that simulated dust collection runs achieved full precision. The approval clears autonomous descent guidance systems for the uncrewed flight to the Martian moon.

  4. 20 March 2028week 74

    Japanese probe enters Mars orbit to survey landing zones on Phobos

    Stereoscopic images reveal dense boulder fields as engineers choose two landing basins.

    base case66%

    — Japan's Martian Moons eXploration probe entered Mars orbit on Wednesday and began mapping potential landing sites on Phobos. Early high-resolution stereoscopic pictures show an unexpectedly dense scatter of surface boulders across the moon. Flight controllers have selected two flat crater basins for sample touchdowns ahead of a planned return to Earth.

  5. 11 December 2028week 112

    Japanese probe gathers dust from Phobos

    The spacecraft seals Martian moon material before climbing into parking orbit near Deimos.

    base case60%

    — The uncrewed Martian Moons eXploration spacecraft completed a touch-and-go landing on Phobos, capturing surface dust in its sample canister. Mission telemetry confirmed that the storage unit sealed the soil samples safely. The probe has now ascended into a stable parking orbit above Deimos.

  6. 3 September 2029week 150

    Solar flare hits Japan Mars moon probe

    Engineers switched to backup computers after radiation corrupted navigation data.

    low probability9%

    — Radiation from a solar particle flare corrupted telemetry memory on Japan's Martian Moons eXploration probe, forcing flight controllers to switch to secondary computers. Ground teams wrote software patches to restore backup systems within forty-eight hours. Flight engineers plan extra engine burns to check deep-space navigation paths.

  7. 8 July 2030week 194

    Japan moon probe fires engines for return journey to Earth

    Engineers confirmed the spacecraft is on course for a 2031 desert landing in Australia.

    base case52%

    — Japan's Martian Moons eXploration spacecraft fired its main engine to leave Mars orbit and begin a two-year trip back to Earth. Trajectory checks confirm the craft is on course to enter Earth's atmosphere in mid-2031. Ground crews have begun surveying recovery sites in the Australian desert.

  8. 14 April 2031week 234

    Japan and Australia set up radar cordon for Phobos sample return

    Flight teams track the Martian capsule ahead of landing in the Woomera restricted area.

    base case50%

    — Flight controllers in Japan and Australia linked search and recovery radar networks across the Woomera prohibited zone on Wednesday to prepare for an incoming spacecraft capsule. Tracking stations have reached full readiness across the Australian outback. Specialized curation and retrieval vans have taken up positions near the target landing site.

  9. 13 October 2031week 260

    Japanese capsule lands in Australian outback with Phobos dust

    A five-year deep-space voyage concludes as retrieval crews rush Martian samples to Tokyo.

    plausible45%

    — A Japanese space capsule parachuted into the Australian desert on Tuesday carrying rocks and dust collected from the Martian moon Phobos. Recovery teams gathered the container in the outback to fly it directly to clean laboratories in Tokyo. The safe landing brought the five-year deep-space mission to a close.