Gulf security architecture and Yemen conflict escalation
Renewed Houthi missile strikes on Saudi urban centers and shipping lanes prompt the UAE to re-enter ground operations alongside Saudi air forces. Washington fast-tracks regional fighter jet sales while GCC members establish unified air defense monitoring. The conflict stabilizes through negotiated regional maritime security corridors.
- Today
Houthi forces launch ballistic missiles at Saudi airports as the United Arab Emirates agrees to resume funding anti-Houthi forces in Yemen.
Where the story stands today. The forecast starts from here.
- 23 November 2026week 5
Pentagon speeds fighter jets and interceptors to Saudi Arabia
The arms package bolsters air cover over cities following renewed Houthi strikes.
base case72%WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has fast-tracked deliveries of advanced fighter jets and air defense interceptors to Saudi Arabia. The weapons bolster missile protection over Saudi cities following renewed strikes from Yemen. Anti-war members of the United States Congress immediately criticized the transfer.
- 1 February 2027week 15
Saudi and Emirati jets strike drone bases on Yemeni coast
Air raids on assembly sites close local fishing ports and displace coastal villagers.
base case70%RIYADH — Joint Saudi and Emirati air raids struck underground drone assembly depots and radar posts along Yemen's Red Sea coast. The strikes damaged missile launching sites used by Houthi forces against shipping lanes. The bombardment forced local fishing ports to close and displaced coastal residents.
- 17 May 2027week 30
Houthi drone boats strike cargo ships near Bab-el-Mandeb
Gulf states prepare naval escorts as container freight prices jump on Asia routes.
base case65%DUBAI — Remote-controlled explosive boats hit commercial container vessels near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait on Friday. The maritime strikes raised container shipping rates between Asia and Europe. In response, Gulf states have moved to form a multinational naval fleet to protect cargo ships.
Follows from: US-Russia diesel deal and transatlantic sanctions riftThe front page that week →
- 20 September 2027week 48
Cruise missile debris damages desalination plant near Yanbu
Water is rationed across the region as Oman begins mediation talks.
low probability6%RIYADH — Debris from a stray cruise missile fell onto a desalination plant near Yanbu on Monday, forcing regional authorities to ration water. The strike has made public utilities a primary focus for Saudi air defence planning. Oman has launched emergency diplomatic mediation to de-escalate the conflict.
- 10 January 2028week 64
Oman brokers Red Sea shipping truce to ease port curbs
A pause in long-range missile strikes clears the way for commercial and aid vessels to reach northern Yemen.
base case58%MUSCAT — Omani mediators brokered a preliminary maritime ceasefire on Tuesday that halts long-range strikes across regional waters. In return, commercial shipping curbs at the northern port of Hodeidah will end. The deal restores passage through the southern Red Sea and lets food and medical convoys resume.
Follows from: US-Russia diesel deal and transatlantic sanctions riftThe front page that week →
- 15 May 2028week 82
Saudi Arabia and UAE set up joint border command to end combat
The bilateral surveillance center marks a shift from active intervention to regional deterrence.
base case52%RIYADH — Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates formed a permanent joint border and coastal surveillance command on Friday, formally ending active combat missions. The unified headquarters will monitor sea lanes and land boundaries across the southern Arabian peninsula. Both states will now focus on border defence rather than air campaigns.