Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak containment and vaccine trials
A deadly outbreak of Bundibugyo Ebola virus in DR Congo claims more than five thousand lives with no approved vaccine or specific therapeutic available. Because existing countermeasures target only the Zaire strain, international health agencies launch accelerated ring trials of experimental bivalent candidates. Coordinated cross-border screening and community mobilization gradually bring transmission under control.
- Today
Government data confirms over five thousand people have died from an out-of-control Ebola outbreak spreading across Democratic Republic of Congo.
Where the story stands today. The forecast starts from here.
- 21 December 2026week 8
WHO approves trials of two experimental vaccines for Bundibugyo Ebola
Ring trials will target medical workers after more than 5,000 die in DR Congo.
base case78%GENEVA — An emergency expert panel in Geneva authorised phase two clinical trials on Monday for two Bundibugyo Ebola vaccine candidates. More than 5,000 people have died in DR Congo during the current outbreak, which has no licensed cure. The decision allows health teams to distribute the shots directly to doctors and nurses on the front line.
- 1 March 2027week 18
Uganda and Rwanda tighten border checks after eleven Ebola cases
Medical checkpoints open along roads to keep the DR Congo outbreak from spreading.
base case75%KAMPALA — Joint medical teams began screening travellers along the Uganda-Rwanda border on Wednesday after doctors confirmed eleven Bundibugyo Ebola cases outside DR Congo. The two nations set up checkpoints to catch sick travellers before infections spread. The virus has already killed more than 5,000 people across the Congolese border.
- 7 June 2027week 32
Militia raid on Ebola clinic halts aid in eastern DR Congo
Medical workers pull back from three districts after an armed assault on a treatment center.
low probability8%GOMA — Armed fighters attacked an Ebola treatment center in North Kivu. Aid groups pulled medical workers out of three eastern districts as a result. The pullout left health workers unable to track virus cases in surrounding rural areas.
- 27 September 2027week 48
Trial Ebola vaccine shows seventy-eight percent efficacy
Clinical trial on fifty thousand health workers clears the way for regional production.
base case72%KINSHASA — An experimental vaccine against the Bundibugyo Ebola virus proved seventy-eight percent effective in frontline trials. Fifty thousand health workers in DR Congo took part in the clinical study. The result allows African labs to prepare for regional production of the drug.
- 14 February 2028week 68
Agencies dispatch 600,000 trial Ebola vaccines to Central Africa
Five countries receive emergency supplies to halt the lethal Bundibugyo strain.
plausible65%KINSHASA — International health teams sent 600,000 experimental vaccine doses to five countries across Central Africa. The rollout targets the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which has killed more than 5,000 people in DR Congo. Doctors will vaccinate populations around outbreak epicentres to form protective rings against further infection.
- 19 June 2028week 86
Ebola infections fall eighty percent across Central Africa
Ring vaccination and targeted treatments check an outbreak that has killed more than 5,000 people.
base case68%KINSHASA — Weekly new Ebola infections across Central Africa fell by eighty percent over the past seven days. Health teams curbed the Bundibugyo outbreak by tracing patient contacts and administering experimental bivalent vaccines in ring campaigns. Field hospitals are now preparing to take down emergency treatment tents as hospital admissions drop.
- 23 October 2028week 104
World Health Organization declares Central African Ebola outbreak over
Forty-two days pass without a single reported transmission of the Bundibugyo strain.
base case65%GENEVA — Forty-two consecutive days passed on Thursday without a single new case of Bundibugyo Ebola in DR Congo, prompting the World Health Organization to declare the outbreak over. The virus killed more than five thousand people before contact tracing and ring vaccination halted its spread. Health officials are now turning their attention toward permanent mRNA vaccine patent pools.
- 20 November 2028week 108
Central African trials establish bivalent formula for Ebola
Final clinical data sets the standard protocol for future filovirus emergencies.
base case62%KINSHASA — Health ministries across Central Africa published final clinical trial findings on Tuesday confirming the efficacy of the bivalent Ebola treatment. The trial proved that the vaccine protected communities exposed to the Bundibugyo strain during the five-thousand-fatality outbreak. The formula now serves as the formal field treatment standard and provides a genetic blueprint for future drug manufacturing.